Evan Davis on American Soccer Analysis: "If Svandis can play 60% plus of the minutes remaining this season, it's Ange...

If you were going to remake Treasure of the Sierra Madre today, you'd make it about cryptocurrency and Calche and like, polymarket bets. Hello and welcome to Expected Own Goals Playoffs edition and also a message from Evan Davis. And I am Evan Davis. Thank you for joining us today. If you are not yet a member of our Patreon, we would highly encourage you to do so. That's the best way to support us and to support the show. So there is a link in the show notes where you can sign them for a little of $6 a month, which gets you four exclusive bonus episodes, gets you access to our discounts for merch and discord access and a ton of other cool features. And extra $4 gets you our cultured number 10 here, where you get an extra monthly bonus episode called xog after dark. We spelled some tea this month, which appear, a lot of people appear to want to hear given the number of upgraded memberships I've seen in the last several days. So if you want to hear what that tea is, go ahead and sign up for our cultured number 10 tier. Again, click the link in the show notes to sign up today. Are you familiar with the playoffs crash out from Jim Mora, the NFL coach? I am not. One of the great meltdowns in sports press conference history. Yeah, he just loses his mind at the word playoffs. But it happens about this far into an NFL season. And so it feels appropriate that today's episode is looking ahead at what might be the playoffs. Well, yeah, last week we checked in since everybody had then played at least half their season who had been underperforming and under overperforming. And now everybody is over the halfway line. And now we are officially in the stretch run if you use the broadest definition of the term. Things are starting to coalesce. And we mentioned on another other show that Mora shared and on broadcast mentioned that every year a team who isn't already in the playoffs mix after the international break ends up breaking through. And that actually doesn't happen. It's only happened once. And that was Angel City in 2023. So around this time, the playoff picture is maybe a little bit more solid. Teams move within that grouping, but if you are not above the playoff line at around this point in recent and WSL history, you're probably almost guaranteed not to go to the playoffs. Now you're in some trouble. Yeah. What could throw that into a bit of disarray this year? Well, we've got a couple of expansion teams, but it's not just that we have a couple of expansion teams. It's that we have the longest regular season in professional women's soccer history, a 30 game campaign. And so what will the extra minutes on everybody's legs do when we go go into the real dark territory of September and October? It could throw some things out of whack. It's not as if roster size in the salary cap has kept up with that dimension of the game, you know, a maximum 26 player roster and only $3.7 million to spend means that you're going to put a lot of wear and tear on the bodies who are available to you. So how does the 30 games season play into that? What lots of lots of teams are barely at the roster minimum right now. They sure are looking at you, Angel City, who picked up Jenny Emethun from Portland for a song. I'm probably a dance and if we're looking on points per game, Angel City is right above the playoff line at the moment. So do you want to hit anything from the action over the weekend before we dive in? Yeah. First off, I love that C.C. Delzer listened to the pod and was like, you're right. I probably am due to goals at least. Wait a second. What? This is news to me. No, she didn't really. I'm just joking that like one of the one of the will come good on the performances players. I have no idea whether she did or didn't, but I love the idea that C.C. Delzer heard us talk last weekend was just like, I'm grabbing a brace. You got damn right. I'm due and put up along with the rest of the Utah team. Some of the most impressive attacking performances of the season by any team. It also is a great. It's also a great encapsulation of what Portland is as an attacking unit. A lot of focus has been on how dicey their defense has been and it's true. Maybe we need the Arnold shots. Yeah. Mackenzie Arnold's shot stopping is billed amount of a lot of jams. Oddly enough, their attack isn't particularly impressive either and the way that Portland's attack, you know, it's sort of platonic ideal in 2026 is Sifio Wilson does Sifio Wilson shit and then nobody else can back that up, which is, you know, what that goal in what like with it 45 seconds into the game or something. 34th. Yeah. 34th second. Like an outrageous high quality chance of extraordinary skill from one of the two best or three best attackers in the league and then fucking Bupkiss as they talked about with a friend of the pod, Joe Lloyd and Sifio Wilson executing one of the biggest misses you've ever seen. So almost all of the XG in that game for Portland was created on basically two Wilson generated breakaways, the harder of which she scored and the easier of which she rounded the keeper and executed. I don't know what the ASA stat correction on it is, but at the time it was an Opta 0.89 miss, which is really something. Yeah. The the ASA model put it around like 0.49. So pretty. I don't know how they're getting it to that with an open net. I yeah, I make of it what you will. Yeah. No, no, no, no, I mean, models will do what models will do. I will tell you that I think if you give Sifio Wilson that chance 10 times, she's not making only five of them. And it was, it was stunning on the broadcast, Lloyd and compares it to the ASA tray or remiss. And both have received stat corrections, but both were sort of the initial miss was like so gaudy is unbelievable. But I also think that like Portland didn't generate a ton otherwise. And the problem that they running to in attack is, well, they have all of these really great and dynamic pieces, particularly in, you know, torden, mul tree as supplemental to Wilson and Rayland Turner who we discussed also, but was out is that there's not really a plan to get them the ball, which is the primary issue like they're okay in the final third. It's getting the ball to the final third that they're also not very good at, yeah, beyond breaking lines and going over the top. So I feel like they, I feel like they got exposed for this sort of predictable team that they are in a bunch of ways against Utah. But that was really just the bill coming due more than anything else. It's not even the biggest blowout, like if you make all the necessary adjustments for like game state and home field advantage and, you know, everything else, quality of opponent, like it's maybe like, it's a very, it's a, it's a significant blow, but it's not like the craziest blowout. The craziest blowout of the season is what North Carolina did to Orlando on Friday, yeah. That was a battering. It's funny because I think if you felt like Orlando had it figured out or at least was like going to be fine offensively from their prior weeks fixture against Chicago where they put up 2.6 XG in the first half without conceding, you should be reminded that it's Chicago folks and North Carolina, a real varsity team really, I think, exorcised some demons against Orlando and Orlando was who they are without Barbara Bando, which is a team that really struggles to generate almost anything, but it's not just, I mean, it's not just their attack. I mean, the thing that, or their defense is, it's break, don't bend. Well, and this is the thing that has allowed Orlando to survive much of this season in there. Much of many seasons. Yeah. Yeah. And so granted, like, Haley Mace only got into the game as a sub. So where she like lined up next to Rafael, like for the whole time, does this look a little bit different? But, you know, Orlando pushed their lines like pretty high and Marta was also like dropping back into the midfield pretty deep. And when Marta is asked to cover ground now, there is real danger of getting exposed. And so it was just a very disjointed defensive performance. I mean, like how were North Carolina going to survive without Monocamadsacuba? Oh, right. Yeah. Like, if your defense is going to give Evelyn E.J. that kind of space to get into the positions that she likes to get into, that's what's going to happen. It was a remarkable attacking performance from her. Evelyn E.J. missed her biggest chance of the game. And still created, again, you know, this is not to criticize Wilson from the prior game or I saw a triory or Evelyn E.J. for missing big chances. It is great to get big chances. Evelyn E.J. in this instance ended up, I think with her first four shots, three of them going in, missing her highest XG chance, and still with an XG over those four shots of two point something. Yeah. It was just quality chance on quality, chance on quality, chance on quality, chance. And as is the same, you know, with Portland, Orlando's defense just coughing them up, non-stop and allowing Evelyn E.J. to sort of have her day. Tonika stops and Tonika stops and must be salivating at the idea of E.J. leading the line at the World Cup next year. Yeah. I mean, she should be. It's incredible. We did it earlier in the season when we were talking about underperformers or people who we expected to sort of comfortably regress. Evelyn E.J. was it and she did almost immediately and now she's in the Golden Boot discussion, which is not unreasonable. Evelyn E.J. is now at least according to G plus one of the better strikers in the league at this point. It's amazing. So those are the blowouts. Nobody else managed to put up a winning score line of greater than a goal. Yeah. I mean, there was a goal fest between Bay and Seattle, but Super sub, well straggling, Jess Fishlock came on to settle that. But at what cost? The hamstring. And... To me fair, nothing says 40th birthday quite like being good for one sprint and having to call it a day. How dare you? She's 39. No, I know. It's impending. I felt very, my heart went out to Jess Fishlock because I think a long busting run to put your team on top of a game that, you know, is really important for their playoff hunt and doing it at the cost of your hamstring is wild. Well, especially because it was essentially the first thing she did. Yeah. It was the first handful of touches and it was also the first handful of moments that Abbey Dolk Emperor was really tested after her return. Right. Yeah. It was a... Yeah. Age on age. Age on age right there. And it's also, you know, Fishlock does not have the type of mentality where she's going to take her foot off the gas and like basically mere seconds after finishing the celebrations, all of a sudden she started grabbing her right hamstring. It was the same brown act. Like Seattle. No, no, no. I mean, because James Brown always manages to get resurrected, meanwhile, without the resurrection. Correct. Meanwhile, Seattle has had used up all their sub windows so they couldn't take her off. It's funny because I want to compliment sort of the evolution of the Seattle rain in this episode. We'll get there when we start talking about the playoffs. But a team that had looked previously dead and gone is not and it's because they have some like kind of interesting attacking weapons. Maddie Dulleen is having a great season. Yeah. We talked about Maddie them out of before. Yeah. Yeah. It's these pieces are the youth movement that we've been waiting on for so long is starting to show signs of life. I mean, Seattle is still a deeply flawed team. But in the past couple of weeks, their offense, maybe there's a little overperformance, but like, their offense is starting to look like an offense, which is not something you've been able to say in Seattle for years. Yeah. I mean, they got blown out in the two games previous to this today. I mean, or over the weekend, it's arguably their best attacking performance all year, even though they conceded two goals, you know? Yeah. I mean, it's a weird game from Bay, friend of the pod, OG listener, OG fan, Katie pointed out like, they put up like 1.1 XG, but only managed to generate like 0.1 offensive G plus. How's that possible? It's crazy. And she's right to point that out. It's extremely rare. But when it happens, usually what that means is you got dispossessed in your own defensive third and then a high XG chance from the opposition came as a result. And that is how Seattle scored a couple of their goals. Yeah. I was about to say he's literally like the version of Seattle that is emerging one that presses well, had themselves a day. And yeah, I don't think any amount of Jen and I swunger is going to solve the ability to possess out of the back. Yeah. You wouldn't think of us knowing her skill set. Yeah. I mean, what do you think of that move? I'm fine with it. I think it's fine. I mean, what the transfer fee was what? Like a couple hundred K, 200 K or around 200 K as Jeff Kazoo for reported. Yeah. I think that's that's fine. You need you need full back depth right now. That's a pretty reasonable piece to go grab. I'm sure I'd longer as thrilled that she's actually going to have minutes for a change. But if you were looking for someone who is like going to be like a lock down defensive full back, that might not be coming your way. Yeah. No, but if you're looking for somebody to dribble you out of trouble or possibly into trouble, Jen and I swunger might just be the ticket. I like the deal. I also think it's interesting just like what 200 K buys you now as opposed to two years ago. I mean, we've talked about the sort of like the market inflation of it, but I said this on the discord and I'm curious what you think about it. It's like, Jen and I swunger went to Arsenal for what? A hundred K somewhere between a hundred and 150 K as I remember it. Yeah. And it's coming back for 200 K two years later. And while that's not a loss on paper for Arsenal, like the balance sheet does not reflect it, that is what 150 K bought you in 2024 versus what it buys you now. It's very different. Yeah. No question about it. Yeah. Yeah. What is she coming into replace Sydney Collins or Maddie Morale? Yeah. It's going to be okay. Yeah. Washington San Diego don't know how much you can really say about either of those clubs given that they were playing them on soon. I think you can say that Washington's tired. Yeah. That's correct. That's correct. They are exhausted. In front of the plot area on a casco and just sort of pointed it out like all the games they played over the past calendar month. And I saw that it was reposted both by Haley Carter and Jordan Small with very different tones of like, yeah, it's been a hard month, basically. And so was Washington do this kind of result, yeah, maybe, but also, what are you going to do? You're playing in a monsoon and you still, I mean, I think it's Washington's defense that's like very still impressive to me. Like you're dead on your legs and you still didn't give up a full XG to one of the better teams in this league, even if you didn't generate much. Yeah. I mean, the ASA model puts it a little bit higher, says that it's about 1.2 XG that they conceded, you know, between each model and make of it whatever you will, but yeah, I mean, they're tired. Simple as that. So just combine the fatigue with the conditions and the fact that they're playing the best team in the league, then chicken, chicken, go a little sideways, but I don't think it's any sort of referendum on like who they are more broadly. No. All's in the league. And they're missing, they're missing, they're missing Monday, they're missing Abiodon. So like, their depth is also taking a hit kind of at the wrong time. Yeah. That's right. The other team that has kind of played the same amount of time in that same window actually is looking quite sharp, IE Gotham, and it was only a 1-0 on the road over Houston, but like the performance was much better than that. And more broadly, like I would say that this week in particular, but generally their performance is over the last month. And the other team sort of taking a step back is putting Gotham in kind of like excellent position all of a sudden to be a top four side. I mean, on points, they're in there, they are a top four side, but I mean on performance, you know, something that can actually be sustained, like they are right in the mix with, you know, Kansas City and Washington and North Carolina, whereas it seemed like maybe they were like a touch behind. Now they are very much like solid top four without question. They've been very good. They play and did against Houston as well as sort of low variance style. They did not allow very much. They did not create a ton. Sam Kerr is making a very real difference in what they're able to do in attack. Jordan Dudley is having a rookie of the year campaign. And so that individual talent is able to sort of carry you over the threshold to a lot of one nils. I mean, that team loves a one-nil, like nobody loves a one-nil. It's truly remarkable. And I'm looking forward to what I think is like not what we would have identified as one of the matches of the season, but Gotham San Diego this Friday is a big picture between two very good teams for sure. And Gotham gets that at home, so I'm fascinated to see sort of what becomes of that. What else do we have? Do we have a... I mean, I don't know what else... I don't know. There's not really much to say. I don't think about any of the other contracts. I mean... I think you can talk about the diminished Kansas City current, not playing particularly well again, Stangel City is still probably better, but they're diminished. That team without Tim Wachuinga and Michelle Cooper is not that good. Yeah, it's not that bad. They had a great game midweek without their front line. I mean, they had a great game midweek against, you know, Louisville. Yeah, but even adjusting for the quality of the opponent, they still, like, very comfortably blew them out. You know, like, it's one of those things where sometimes we forget it's not just how you perform against good teams, but also just how hard you hammer bad teams. I mean, sure for your underlying numbers, but three points is three points is three points. And... Well, you're saying, are they good or not? Like, three points is a failure or a good one. They're a team that I think they're underlying numbers overstate for me, their quality. Okay. Okay. No, I mean, that's just true. What's true for you? I think that without Michelle Cooper and Timor Chowinga, they are a much more vulnerable team. As any team would be without those players, but like, you know, like Kroyba Thuin is having the season of seasons, but she alone can't solve this problem. And I genuinely have, I don't know. I think that like, yeah, you beat up a Louisville team that pays peanuts to their players and who are also traveling for their second game of the week. So fine, it's a blowout. I kind of feel like Louisville a little bit through in the towel for that one. And one dominant Kansas City current performance doesn't change the fact that against better opposition, they've often looked like not particularly impressive or like not like the dominant team that the underlying numbers suggest that they are. In this game, you know, they give up a great goal to Taylor Suarez. I also want to compliment, maybe Ali Centner listens. I want to compliment Ali Centner on one of her best games as a professional as far as I was concerned, her movement was incredible, excellent. And she took zero shots from outside the box all day while generating, I think, a pretty like in a game where Angel City didn't generate a lot. She created the goal with an off ball run that created the path for Taylor Suarez. And more than that, you know, like was a chance creator. I think she ended up with three or so. I think she created one what we would call quality chance throughout the game. But that's like, honestly, a material improvement from her. I'm sure that the seven from outside the box game from just a week before was a real come to Jesus moment. One would Denver Boston, great to see a goalkeeper assist, fourth in league history, less great to see Bianca St. George once again, conceding a penalty. I mean, Bianca St. George is just, you know, she's working on her personal brand and that brand is really strong, apparently. Yeah, I think that I'm sure that Denver feels deeply frustrated with that result. I mean, they gave up a goal that no defense should concede, granted casing, if you kick snot out of that ball, add like 70 yards in the air plus to get to Sammy Smith who needed to do little more than pass the ball with her left foot past Abby Smith. You know who hates conceding a goalkeeper assist, the other goalkeeper because it means your defense thoroughly abandoned you though both teams would resent the statement expansion bowl showed that these teams are like both not terrible and both like sort of a similar evolutionary steps along the way, like both with a lot of fate, a lot to figure out. Yeah. Yeah. And then the level B Chicago, whatever. I personally loved that game. The heavens opened up after Jordan Blumer let in that horrendous long range shot. Yeah. And it was, it had like the sort of like the two most punished teams in the league biblical quality. Basically Louisville like blew the shit out of Chicago, which is a deeply depressing statement if you're a Chicago stars fan. And if you were going to fix the Chicago stars, give me three moves or two moves that you would make right now. It's not possible to do it in that few moves. There's just too much going. No, no, to just make them like if you're going to try to make them materially better right now. I don't know spend a couple million to get Naomi Gurma and I don't know some midfielder that can also just like come up the works, you know, they are so rapidly on pace to be the worst team in league history. And honestly, that's what I thought that they would be at the beginning of this season. Certainly. I thought it was a reasonable possibility. Yeah. Do they have, have they won the XG battle in any game this year? I can check. Cause I think that's a legitimate question. Let's see if we're going by our fancy shmancy opponent quality game state adjusted version. Once July 4th weekend, there are three two win over Utah. They had a plus point three non penalty XG differential once you adjust for all of the necessary incidentals. That's one in 17 games that they've been the quote unquote, deserved winner. That's, I mean, I'm sorry, like the people of Chicago deserve better than this. No shit. So as we transition to our playoff line discussion, we can very quickly eliminate them from possibly making a wrong take out both of those teams from the conversation for very different reasons, but both of those teams from, you know, like I think Louisville, like if they wanted to spend the money, probably have enough pieces to like, and probably have enough cap room to like fix this team with some real financial commitment. Chicago have no such possibility available to them at this point. But yeah, let's, let's begin our, the state of the playoffs as we, you know, round into the home stretch and we can start by eliminating Chicago and Louisville. Anybody else you want to take out of the conversation right now? Yeah, he's sitting there. Yeah, I think that obviously looking at the table as is, it's not like mathematically impossible to take Houston and Bay out of this. But their performances just don't justify like a serious handling of that. Could they, could both teams like catch some real bounces and make the playoffs? Yeah, mathematically, absolutely, you know, being, you know, five points and four points off of the playoff line as it stands. Sure, but it would require that the underlying, those are also not good teams. Yeah, and like, is Bay more broadly better now than they were in the first half where they were really letting teams run all over them? Yeah, sure. And they've got enough points on the board where they could still potentially be in the mix. So Rachel Kononenji comes back from Wafcon and, you know, I'll say this, like if of those two teams, one were to really make a push for the playoffs, it would be Bay. But I think they're just too deep in the hole because again, it's not about, it's not just about how they do. It's about how everybody right above them does and everybody right above them, despite Bay's improvements of the last few weeks is better than them. And, and what do these teams have in common? Well, if you played ASA's new game, road to 75, you would know that Jane Campbell and Jordan Silcoitz, Jordan Silcoitz currently is recording the greatest season in goalkeeping history, according to G plus and Jane Campbell is not far behind her. So I think we can expect some of those numbers to come a little bit down to earth. And any amount of goalkeeper regression for either of those two teams is a death nail. Yeah, it doesn't even, you don't even need like legitimate regression. It just could be a patch of bad luck, which they haven't really had yet. Frankly, it could just be bang average goalkeeping. Right. And that would be a problem between the two of them. Who would I be less surprised to make the jump? It would definitely be Bay. It helps when you're not starting G Relly all the time to create offense and attack that has some combination of a good Rachel Kundinanji, a good version of her. Plus Alex Fyfer, plus Kennedy Fuller, plus Hannah B bar, plus like a sometimes productive and quite fast Carly Lima. Yeah, there's like Claire Hutton, you can sort of see what like Bay 2027 or 2028 might look like and be quite threatening, but it isn't Bay 2026 yet. The other team in the mix, at least in terms of their points level is Boston, who we've often sung their praises because their defense, despite their foul happy nature is really quite solid. But there's one big problem that Boston has if they are going to try and do this, which feels to me pretty insurmountable. They have his private is providential. Yeah, yes, indeed. They have the toughest schedule for the rest of the year of any team. It's really just road games. A lot of it, out of it is road games because they've been treated to a bunch of front loaded home matches due to World Cup stuff and Foxboro and having Centennial Stadium being available in Pawtucket. Now they got to go on the road and they have been a good team. I mean, they haven't been a great team, but they have been like, they've kept their XG differential once you make all your adjustments above, you know, they've kept that above water, but not so much so that you would say like, they've got the underlying talent to push back all of the like historical obstacles that we have found of teams who are below the playoff line at this point. And if they got to play most of those games away, I don't think they've got it. But, you know, they still want to make the playoffs and good for them. I just don't think it's going to happen. Yeah. Let's, let's me also like make it very, very clear. We are projecting that the playoff lines probably going to be 42 points for a third game season. That's been pretty consistent going back to our preseason projections of like where the line between eighth and ninth place has landed. And that hasn't really changed. You know, what are they on 1.1 times 18? Yeah, they're on, they're on 20 points right now, which means they got to pick up 22 points in the next 12 games. Yeah, it's, it's tough. And again, five, four of their last five fixtures are on the road. They have a Pacific Northwest swing. And then they close the season out with a Southern California swing. So San Diego and Angel City, look, if they're in the mix for the final, the final game of the season against Angel City might actually be really interesting, but that's going to require a lot of, you know, a lot of defensive solidity and then getting bounces going your way. Or they're like the last team that I'd say I feel like is definitely outside this. Yeah, again, it's just, it's just too big of a gap to make up with too many difficult hurdles to, to do over Orlando's kind of next on the outside looking in this is sort of when like the playoff line discussion really does begin in earnest, they have like a pretty neutral schedule ahead. Orlando right now is pegged by both the ASA and learner in the low model for 39 points. Yeah. And three points away from the projected playoff line. So all of a sudden now we're in the zone of like a couple of things break right. This could happen. But if a couple of things break wrong and Orlando has probably the thinnest margin for error here, then we're not talking about them as like a contender. At all. Yeah. That's right. At all. And I think that we really need to like emphasize how Barbara Banda piled that team. Like, like they just do not have a lot of Barbara Banda's position weighted net G plus is 0.31. It's an it's another all time great season for her. Beyond that, almost the entirety of their defense beyond Rafael is like neutral to bad and outside of SLI Washington, they don't really have anything else creative working in a meaningful way. And so like a loss of Banda probably diminishes the output of the rest of the attack. Well, yeah, I mean, we've highlighted it on a couple of episodes before. Like almost 45% of the XG generated relative to availability is made by Banda, which is just like an outrageous sum for a team to rely so heavily on one player. That just doesn't happen very often. So if that is going to continue to be the case and she is not available for more than just the WaffCon period, I do not know how this team scores goals. Yeah, get, get her a cryo chamber, get her a diet. Titian, do whatever it takes to keep Barbara Banda in peak condition because that is the only path forward for Orlando sneaking into the playoffs. It's his lopsided or roster in terms of output as exists in this league. So now let's get into me. They're probably out. I think, yeah, I think that's true, especially because of just how severely not only they've been beaten, but just all the points they've been dropping of late. You know, they're not going to have Barbara Banda for another couple of weeks. Like I don't see that changing at all. So now we get to the group where I think they're real, real questions to be asked of like, who actually has the better chance? Seattle, Angel City, Denver, who are all roughly equal on points per game. Seattle and L.A. are dead equal, tied for eighth place at the moment on points per game and projected somewhere between 40 and 43 points. Our model thinks it's going to be Seattle of that three who will make the leap. But with very low confidence, pretty low confidence. And also, I mean, of that group of, you know, once we look at strength of schedule and game state adjusted XG, Seattle has been very comfortably the worst team on performances up to this point of those three. Yeah. I think for me, let's, well, let's start by saying top down Gotham, Washington, San Diego, Utah, and probably both Kansas City and Portland, you really have nothing to worry about if the ambition is to make the playoffs. If you want to talk about who's competing for top four, it does feel like right now at least Gotham and Washington have meaningfully separated. And San Diego is very good and has a reasonable schedule out the rest of the season. So those feel like a top three to me. And then Utah is just good. I mean, who grabs your foreseed right now as it Kansas City? Yeah, it's putting it together. It's Kansas City followed by Utah. But again, like our projection model averaging the two models together have both of those teams finishing on 50 points. So if it's Utah in the four spot in KC and fifth spot, like I wouldn't shock me. Oh, and by the way, Portland's projected for 49 because despite them not being very good, they have the softest schedule of any team going forward and they've banked a lot of points already. Yeah, it's, I have no doubt that they have the capacity to play down to opponents. And we have seen them do it. I also think that they just have, and this has been the case. All season, no matter what Robert Villahoman does, they just have too much offensive firepower to miss the playoffs and a league in a league where eight of the 16 teams make the playoffs. If this were a league where only the top four were going in, I'd say Portland was in real trouble. Yeah. And with Kansas City, they really need Tim Wood to not come back from WaffConn injured without Tim Wood, that would also be a problem. But unlike Orlando, they do actually have some secondary depth and they have corroded the food and having an all-timer. But yeah, so I think all of those teams we can sort of put in the safe camp. So yeah, if any team were to fall into this group, it would probably be Portland of that fall up. No, no, fall down to it. As we're talking about into the middle, into the actual playoff line discussion. I see. Yeah. So that's true. I mean, North Carolina is playing like a top four side at the moment, but they've just dropped some points at times where maybe they didn't deserve to. Other times where they very much did deserve to, but that's put them behind the eight ball a little bit. And they've got the second hardest schedule going forward just after Boston. And so we're projecting them for 45 points in seventh place, which is a meaningful gap between them and the 49 point Portland projection. So North Carolina, if they play to their level right now, even after accounting for the strength of schedule, should be safe. And if I were to put any bets between Portland and North Carolina to remain safe, I'd put it on the courage. It's just that like they've just got a few, they've got a few points to make up and they have a couple of extra games in hand, which means they, they're going to play more in the next three months than some other teams. You know, one of the things that makes Portland schedule really soft is they got all of their midweek games out of the way in the first half of the season. Yeah. And so they are only playing weekends. That is not true for North Carolina moving forward. Yeah. And by the way, that also goes for Gotham, Washington, San Diego, Utah, Kansas City. Like they're all done with having to deal with midweek hassles. Whereas like, yeah, North Carolina, Seattle, Angel City and Denver all have 16 games remaining. They are the four teams that have to, you know, manage those minutes without a lot of bodies available to do it. So I lean, I still lean North Carolina because some of the questions about how you operate without Monocca are being answered. Yeah. I mean, Ashley Sanchez on the face of it is not putting up the elite position rated net. She plus that wins you an MVP. But like for like the narrative, he grit and determination, dragging a team, you know, kicking and screaming into the playoffs, she is doing a version of that. And like, she probably will end up on one of our two best 11s at the end of this season when we talk about it because, you know, she's just been really, really good. That said, she has significantly more talent around her than a lot of these other teams that we're going to discuss, whether it be like the emerging Evelyn E.J. or just like Riley Jackson, having herself a nice little season. I think that this is a team that just is better built, whether you want to put, you know, whether you want to put extra faith into a coach, I think Maklin does had a really clear sense of how he's wanted this team to play and he played it the whole way, which is a more progressive, more attacking style. And it seems like now that Monocca is gone, they're not really decommitting, which is either brave or bold or dumb. Well, he's got, he's got the personnel for it. Whereas like the Sean Nejas Kurt Johnson approach was never to like actually go out and buy attacking depth on the market. So they bought Jayden Shaw, but yeah, your point stands. Yeah, and also they did, they used Jayden Shaw with it. Yeah, they used Jayden Shaw very poorly, whereas like, yeah, between Sanchez and E.J., they naturally compliment each other because Shaw's never just like the in the box off the shoulder in behind number nine, whereas that's what E.J. is doing and is combining so effortlessly with everything that Sanchez is doing. And so what's funny is also like if you want to knock Portland's projection a little bit, you could also do that simply because like I'm accounting for what I presume to be increased minutes going forward for Morgan Weaver. And we know that the ASA model really puts a lot of stock into individual attacking performances. And so having Sophia Wilson and Morgan Weaver on the field together probably makes that projection more aggressive than it will be in reality. So pulling that a little bit closer and bumping North Carolina maybe a little bit higher. I think just, I think yeah, I mean, North Carolina finishes six that feels totally in the realm of possibly. Yeah, I think that what the ASA model doesn't know is that Morgan Weaver has been, he's recovering from an injury. It just knows what Morgan Weaver is as a player. Yeah. And like again, I've been very, very meticulous, especially considering Waffcon and other like high profile starting 11 injuries to other players where like I'm essentially going game by game and changing the lineup based on when I think players will be available. And so like Weaver, I don't have entering the starting 11 for like another three or four weeks. But yeah, I think that's right. You know, even so her impact is just so massive when she's on her game that the projection model just really loves that 12 games to play. It feels more realistic like Portland will still squeak out a fifth or six place finish. But North Carolina is just playing so well that I think they could do they could overcome them. Portland have Kaya Hanks coming back, which will also be a positive theoretically. She has been behind Morgan Weaver in terms of recovery timelines. But adding a Kaya Hanks in September and October would be another nice feather in their cap. And I think the other thing I want to give a little grace to is well, she did not look the part against Utah. If they've even broken even with a neutral midfielder in Nina Nystad, that will be a meaningful improvement or that will be meaningful depth for their team moving forward. I shared something from our account just sort of, you know, like Portland's six primary defenders all have negative net position weighted net G pluses. And I just shared them blind because it's like you pick any of these six is like a problem. So it's really a question I think for Portland, this defense feels like a problem. But if they can continue, if they can improve their goal scoring with their returning figures and find even just a little bit of stability and if, you know, assuming McKenzie Arnold, Arnold doesn't completely collapse down the stretch. Yeah, I still think that the points in hand are a real favor for them and the schedule as well. Yeah. For North Carolina, they could benefit from like Kaelin Sheridan just playing like any version of Kaelin Sheridan we've known before. Like that would materially improve them. But yeah, those two teams are playoff teams. I don't know in what order, but they feel like playoff teams to me. So let's get into the teams that are competing now theoretically for that eight spot. Right now Seattle is the one we have projected to make it over. And I think that just comes down to the schedule again. They've got the third softest schedule going forward. Even though they have a couple of games in hands, they have more soccer to play. But it's really incredible. Like once you strip out quality of opponent and game state and everything else to their XG, just how much worse they've been compared to Angel City in Denver. Like it's it's like they're they're playing like Bayer Houston, rather than a team that could actually like make the playoffs. And a big win, a big and sadic win at the weekend is keeping their points total realistic for them to do it. But my God, on the whole, they've just been very bad. Even with Maddie Mercado and Maddie Dolly doing what they've been doing. Yeah. And Claudia Dickey having like a perfectly fine season and Sally mentee, you know, it's it's really a question of like great that Jess Fishlock came back and grabbed a winner. Bad if Jess Fishlock is out for another six weeks because she's done her hamstring. This team with a productive Jess Fishlock, I think I'd have more confidence in. You know, it's a yeah, I mean, we know their deficiencies. It really is just a matter of like, are they going to go into games against teams that they should grab results from and grab results and they don't have that quality on their roster that all the way through that suggests to me like that's clearly a yes. But you look at their next three games and like it's Angel City and Chicago and Louisville. And so like they have a six pointer at this weekend and then two games that they need six points from, you know, and that gets us to sort of late August. We'll know a lot about who this team is by the end of August, by what they've done in these fixtures, many of which they will need to grab very serious points from. Yeah. We will know whether their playoff push actually is legitimate because they've picked up points against teams they've they're supposed to. You know, I don't know if it'll prove like who they are in terms of quality. Ciceroly, but but like there that strength of schedule will stop looking as good come September. This is the feasting time for them and they need to make something of it. And they can again because of the way that Mercado and Dickie has played. There's no reason not to assume that like seven to nine points are available to them in the rest for the rest of the month, but make no mistake. They have to get at least seven points from those three games. And if they don't, they've made it a lot harder for themselves. I think the Seattle Rainer accustomed to doing to be fair and still figuring a way out of it. But I know we're sort of the learner model sees it and where ASA sees it. They're probably not my pick to get in just on talent or form. Well, but the learner model thinks that by a point, Angel City will beat them out. Yeah, and I kind of think that's right. Yeah, again, on talent up to now stripping all of the noise out, Angel City has been the best team of these three. I mean, it's a coin flip really between Angel City and Denver, but Angel City has just a bit of an edge both on the adjusted XG and also on X points and on raw points per game for that matter. And they've picked up good results under LAPS Mayrude in the last few weeks, generally speaking, getting a draw against Kansas City on the road is a big deal. Like they are, they've done everything that they've probably had to do. And by the way, I include the time where they were being managed by Alex Strauss in that. What does Angel City have to overcome? It's the schedule. It's just going to be very, very difficult because they played the fewest midweek games in the first half of the year. So they've got a couple of midweek games. They'll have to, they'll have to make up not to mention just generally having two games in hand relative to other teams. And they're on the road a lot. And they're not playing, they're not playing easy sides. You know, it's like 10 games against five opponents in the second half of the year for them. Yeah, again, their August is one that like by September 1st, we'll know a lot more about Angel City's prospects because they have Seattle away followed by Washington at home, followed by Gotham at home, followed by North Carolina away and Boston away. And like, that's smart. It's a hard run. Yeah, that is a, you're two home games in that runner against probably two of the best teams in league, if not the two best teams in league. It's really bad that you have five games between now and the end of August with multiple, with a cross country trip being a part of that. Yeah, it's really challenging. Things soften up a bit in September. And but the, you know, they still have Gotham and Washington away at the end of September beginning of October. It's, it's not what you want. No. And, you know, one of those, one of those road games against a hard team is going to be a midweek fixture. So like the final week of August, they've got, you know, that's the Gotham game at home. And then it's North Carolina midweek on the road. And then it's Boston on the road. And like, Boston is probably the game where you can pick up the most points. But Boston makes visiting team's lives hell. So like, where, where are the six points or the seven points in that little run? That's, that's hard because Angel City hasn't had to deal with like two road games in the span of four days. All season yet. If Seattle's upcoming schedule is a six pointer followed by a game two games where they need to get six points, Angel City's is a six pointer against Seattle followed by two games in which no one expects them to get any points. And that will, that will make the table look different in a couple of weeks. I still think that like, talent wise. God, it's really close. Well, it's just like, how much do you wait each of these factors, right? Because like, Seattle is by far the worst team, but they have by far the easiest schedule. Angel City, it's the reverse. They are the strongest team with the toughest schedule. So like, what wins out in the end, especially when our projection separates them by two points total? Yeah, it really is just, and this is where like low confidence on the eight seed. It is, it will come down to really getting results and just bounce of the ball. No, it's not worth it. That's will be great. Yeah, that's what I mean. Like getting results regardless of how they come to you. That ball that clips the crossbar instead of sliding under the crossbar. Yeah, that's hard to predict, especially given like where Angel City is. They've got what 22 players roster right now. They're they're carrying the minimum, I think even after the Jenny, Jenny Emethune pick pick up. I think the Jenny Emethune peak got them back to compliant. Yeah, well, 22 is compliant, isn't it? Yeah, but I think that is what got them from 21 to 22. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So like Jenny, Jenny Emethune is an interesting prospect, and the six, I mean, if you're not convinced that Neely Martin can start more games, like maybe you believe that you need more depth in defensive midfield. But like, I don't know if that was like the first place I would go looking to bolster the squad. I think it was what was available. I mean, sure. Do we have any update because at the weekend, Svandis went off with a pretty bad looking ankle injury, but I have not heard of an update as to her status. And that is a big question that could swing our predictions completely. Yeah, this is my this is my issue here, which is Svandis goes down with the kind of injury that looks terrible on replay, but also ankle sprain. It's an outside ankle sprain almost certainly just given the way her foot roll. And depending on the grade of that, she could be back in two weeks or she could be knocked back and she walked off the field, which does not tell you anything with an ankle sprain. Right. It looked genuinely awful and she is the most important attacking node. And I baked in some of that to the ASA projection, where I think I took her out for the next three games, I think, and then concluded her as a sub for a couple of games after that. And wouldn't you know it? There's a four point gap in the ASA model between them in Seattle, rather than the one point gap with them on top in the learner model, which doesn't have any knowledge of like what lineups are going to look like game-to-game. So it is going to be a very big swing of momentum as it were if Svandis is going to be out for an extended period of time. If Svandis meets your expectation for injury, yeah, it's a toss-up. If Svandis is out for the rest of the season or is out for close to the rest of the season, I think you suddenly say that like whatever talent or performance advantage Angel City has has evaporated. And I think that brings us to Denver, which is sort of, which is the most idiosyncratic case to make here, because it's relying on stuff that, I mean, I think it really just comes down to relying on Denver's historical across all sport, natural home field advantage of elevation, and the fact that they have a ton of home games remaining, because unlike Boston, their schedule was built around stadium availability, not really being a thing until the second half of the season. Well, it's, you know, in super small sample, let's not necessarily put a lot into this, but of the one, two, three, four, five, six, seven home games that they've played up to now, they've only won two of them. So, and it was against Orlando and Portland who are like softer opposition than the top four, but they're not Louisville or Chicago or Houston or Bay or anything like that. So to what extent can they use elevation to their advantage? You know, like all of a sudden I started hearing a lot about elevation being a home field advantage for Utah, which are, you know, what, 800,000 feet below Denver, but like until this season, it was never a thing. It was never a thing. And so, you know, the weight of elevation being an advantage for them, I don't know how much stock I put on it relative to just the talent that they have available. And by the way, the talent that they have available could be a playoff to you. Yeah. So, so the case in favor of like elevation is a huge advantage. It's just sort of historically over the over the course of looking at like seasons and seasons of NHL and NBA and NFL data. You know, the Rockies are their own thing in baseball and so it gets an asterisk. But like, I think all of those teams have had like demonstrably meaningful home field advantage and a lot of that due to elevation, whether that shows up for a middle of the table Denver side over a handful of fixtures. Who knows? Yeah. So small sample. So like, like, you would expect over time, Denver and to a lesser extent, Utah, because it has been true for the Utah jazz to like show some reasonable amount of home field advantage that is elevation. Eat it. That said, Denver has, you know, Abbey Smith, who is a all who's putting up an all time or goalkeeper season, who's a prime candidate for small sample negative regression to something that looks a lot more like a normal goalkeeper. And even if it's to Abbey Smith, you know, inconsistent because of health, but elevated all sort of status as a goalkeeper, I think there's like a reasonable argument to be made over the course of her career. She's a better than average shot stopper. If she comes back down to earth from this season, even a little bit, that also is like, they're good. That can counteract your home field advantage. Yeah. And Abbey Smith, you know, to borrow a phrase of our of our friend, Jill Lloydon, it's not just the shot stopping. It's the shot prevention because she's a sweeper keeper in the league. Some might argue for Oncotron Berger and Mix, but like, she is either the best or one of them best at preventing shots from even happening by her defensive actions in around the box. That will be a huge boon to making sure that Denver's defensive mistakes should they arise and they have on occasion, not expose them. So between that and between Kusler trying to find some of that early season form again, I wouldn't be super surprised if they if they can pull it out because they do have a bit of a win at their backs. I mean, you know, their schedule strength for the rest of the year, all the home games are sort of balanced out by the fact that they're playing a lot of tough teams as well. So it's slightly easier than average, but it's not as extreme as some of the other teams schedules look for the rest of the year. Yeah. And again, this is where sort of, so my apprehension with some of this comes down to even if Abbey Smith is, you know, still great and still preventing a lot of shots. She has Ava Gaitino in front of her who's been like on performance by NetGee plus one of the worst defenders to be playing a lot of minutes this season. Kayleigh Kurtz is having either an age-related slowdown or an uncharacteristically mid season for herself. Yeah. Or as being forced to do a lot of mop-up work next to Gaitino, which is straining, you know, which is, I.O.K. who looks like incredible in attack. It does not produce that same quality necessarily in defense. And Janine Sonis is also not like the most defensively resolute version of herself either. And so there is, it really, like for me, comes down to, I've always been the low person on Custler and I'll continue to be the low person on Custler because I just, she's really bad at generating her own shot. Yeah. I was too. I mean, we were in agreement on that. Yeah. Reseason. And she just happened to turn some things around for the first half. Like, maybe in defense of that initial preseason position, she has come back down to earth. And at times has lost her place in the 11. Yeah. Yeah. I think that she, she cannot, she's a passing black hole. It's still a lot of, I mean, a lot of that is the offside stuff, which can, for some reason, tags your passing value for that. But also, she doesn't have a lot in the middle of the park around her. And yeah, now that Lindsey Huran is there, Lindsey Huran needs to be doing like huge amounts of work to unlock Melissa Custler. What I've seen in Custler is just a player who like, the league didn't have tape on. And now the league has a little bit of tape on and understands that she is a huge physical unit that you need to deal with and take out of the game. But yeah, I, I sort of, my apprehension about Denver remains the same. And yet, I, they're very much in here. So between Seattle soft schedule, Angel City's mild talent advantage, really tough schedule and potential not talent advantage if Sanders is done. Exactly. And Denver's sort of mishmash of advantages and disadvantages. Like, what, what's you got to tell you? Who's, who's over the line here? This is where I always go down to what are they doing in the last two weeks of season? Like, because it'll probably come down to that. Yeah, because if these teams, I mean, like, the great news is if these teams are all within a fixture of it, a fixture, or a couple of points of each other, we might have a fantastic decision day. Yeah, for sure. That said, Denver, despite all of their hum games, closes out their season. Where is this game? They have final two weeks. They have racing movable at home. And then the final day is North Carolina on the road. So that's also a push. Yeah, yeah. But I mean, the October 17th fixture against Angel City is, is the big one. They have a six pointer in mid September against Seattle. So it's the best thing that you can hope for in this kind of playoff race is that all of these teams get to play each other at least once. Denver gets to play Angel City twice. So I kind of feel like I continue to not be wowed by Denver. You want to hear something? For the, for the, for the small sample, US women's celebrity sickos out there in 311 minutes. Zheeps is receiving G plus relative to other attacking midfielders for 96 minutes 0.10, which is outstanding. Yeah, she's been really good across these first three games. Yeah, get the bottle in Z is the thing. And dribbling is negative 0.06, but you know, who's count? Yeah, once you get the bottle in Z, tell her to pass. Oh, I, again, let's not, we don't need to parse the Lindsay noise just yet. I think you know, both seed better receiving scores over three game periods that have not materialized into excellent play. That said, yeah, like if you want to take that and say that Lindsey Huron is like the pivotal character in whether this team gets over the line. I don't have a lot of pushback there. I think that that's probably not crazy if you needed to pinpoint a single player. I think if you were going to pinpoint a single player in Angel City, it would be Svandis and that's terrifying. And in the absence of Svandis, you'd put it on Ali sentner and that's also terrifying. And if you're going to go put it on Seattle, the pivotal player is probably some version of Claudia Dickie and or Maddie Dolly and both of them look like they take it. Claudia Dickie's already great and Maddie Dolly and looks like she's taken a legitimate evolutionary step and is like putting up the kind of numbers that will make her very difficult to overlook for the World Cup or for Emma Hayes in a system that is not designed for her to like be great. So I, you know, it's this is like a classic stay away bet because I do not have anywhere near the confidence in any of these teams. Yeah, because none of them have the points in the bank to separate themselves. The one team that is like slightly got the edge has been terrible up to now, but they're the ones who have the gentlest downhill slope for the next 16 games. Meanwhile, the best team has the hardest schedule, but also might be losing their star. And the wild card has the fewest points in the bank, but barely maybe has just enough extra attacking juice in the nine in the number 10 now to play off the rest of the forwards that they could do it. I agree. This is one of those years, man, where like that final slot. I mean, these final slots are always tricky. And I think we always when we do these episodes talk about them as such, but this one's a weird one. So maybe I'll just for me personally, I'll put my stock in the schedule and how that can also be mixed with luck and say that Seattle like gets over on the final day. I and I feel like Seattle closes out against not a crazy closeout. Their final two games are neutral on the road in Orlando at home. So again, which all yet. So their final two games are challenging and also potentially a six pointer for the playoffs because in this discussion, we have left out Orlando and probably with good reason, they are the furthest outside of this for us, but also like, I don't want to be against Barbara Banda ever. Yeah. If Banda stays healthy and again, the bounces go your way and we really can't stress enough. Luck is probably going to be the ultimate determining factor here. Yeah, Orlando could sneak in no question. If you asked me to rank them right now, obviously, okay. So we've got North Carolina in whether they're six or seven, but if we're going to go and let's throw Orlando in the mix here. Okay. If you're going to go eight, nine, 10, 11, I think I'm probably going, God, I'd love a spandis update. Yeah, this is the thing. And by the way, this may all be amended by the time we release this that we made know the severity of spandises injury, but I think it's worth stating that like even whatever spandises injury is listed as unless it's an SEI and they put her on the list, you're getting something out of her. Yeah. Well, it's still like a timetable that will be unclear because she could be ahead of schedule or behind schedule or just take it. Eight will go. I just don't think Seattle gets it done. I don't care about this. Yeah. The more that I said it and then I immediately regretted it. Like I know, I don't get ahead of it. Like again, look, Seattle always gets it done in these kinds. Like, there's been a hallmark of Laura Harvey, like Beats Dem. And like, that's been the story. No, I mean, it didn't happen last year. But like, she, uh, she finally has a team that has like interesting attacking pieces and that occasionally demonstrates them. Is this a better Seattle team than existed last year? Yeah, for sure. And yet that doesn't fill me with confidence. Which, which mess would I like the best? And I'd least like Orlando's problem of being banded dependent and everything else. Yeah. Not really working. And also my defense falling apart. I'd second least like Angel City's uncertainty. But if it breaks the right direction in Spain, this doesn't really miss any time. They're definitely the pick for me. I in theory like Denver's home field advantage and the addition of Lindsey keeps being meaningful. But I also watched them just give up a goalkeeper assist. Like I, it's anecdotal, but like, that's a no no. And, and I also don't love that this is a 30-game season and that Denver is among the oldest teams in this mix. Right. Which is also points off of Orlando too. Yeah. So Seattle being young, Seattle being kind of miserable, but also with an easy schedule. I think I'm going to, it's like if Svandis can play 60% plus of the minutes remaining this season, it's Angel City. And if not, it's Seattle for me. I agree with that. I think that's the right way to look at it. And again, to be clear, like if Denver is the one to do it and become the third ever expansion team to make the playoffs in their first year, not crazy wouldn't be crazy. Yeah. If I were like handycapping this right now, I'd say that for that final playoffs, but if we assume that North Carolina's locked in for that final playoff spot, I'm probably going like 30% Seattle, 25% Angel City, 25% Denver, 20% Orlando. Like it's close. It's, it's, it's a real coin flip. And it's what these teams, frankly, it's what these teams do in their matchups against each other that will clean this up really quickly. Again, uh, or can it all circle your calendars October 17th, 2026. You'll see I mean versus Denver. And also Sunday, Sunday, Sunday, Angel City versus Seattle. It's a big game. Yeah. I don't have the percentages in front of me for the ASA model. But if we're just looking at percentages, you'll city by Learner Elo 54% to make playoffs Seattle 47% Denver 25 or Lando 19. And they'd look different if we locked North Carolina in here because North Carolina is not at 100 nor is Portland. So there are, there are like versions of that model where like one of those two teams collapses or both of them collapse. But yeah, if we go with the, if we go with the, the sort of educated guess that both of those teams have done enough or and are good enough and are frankly better than these teams below them on some level. And this is our final four. Yeah, it's really close. Uh, yeah. Again, uh, the, this famous question, if yay, Angel City, if nay, Seattle, also like the transfer window is not closed. Right. So a whole other thing. If you can figure out how to materially improve your team, Angel City certainly has roster spots, whether they have money to do anything with them is a different question. Yeah, it's, it's open. I mean, just like, can I, let's pull up our pre-season predictions because this is like a good time to check in on this. I said Angel City would finish an eighth. And you said San Diego would finish an eighth. Where did you have San Diego? I had San Diego 11. Oh boy. We're, we're gonna, yeah, we're gonna be watching on that one. Between Utah and San Diego, it's, we took two big ol' hacks. And the learner model pinned Portland to finish eighth pre-season and ASA pinned San Diego to finish eighth pre-season. Yeah. So I think the guys and guests Evan had, Evan and I both had Seattle ninth. So bully for us. We're not gonna be that far off. I had Angel City 10th. Evan had them eight. Denver was 12. You were 13. And then Orlando, I was fifth. You were seventh. Yeah. So Angel City and Seattle are the two where like our pre-season predictions are probably gonna come in the closest of those four clubs. Yeah. And also just Orlando is just, Jacque O'Valle is not proven to be like much beyond a sort of bang average, NWSL player. Which makes a chance for me. I saw a little bit of chatter being like, oh, it's because of coaching and not knowing how to use her properly. And like guys, Jacque O'Valle is good. But the guy Mecky's female is a really bad league. But you compare it to the NWSL. Like it's very easy to look incredible as an attacker in that league. Yeah. Also, it plays that as your baseline. Also, if Jacque O'Valle has a good 2027, I won't be surprised. There is a betting in period that is required. And she's played shockingly few minutes with Barbara Banda. Yeah, we know they're a talent. Yeah. Let's talk about, obviously, let's close with like, I'm seeing like a lot of Seb Heinz hot seat chatter. Or like, that's a thing because like Orlando's, I just don't think you fire subheim. That's not a problem. Yeah. It's just not the problem. Like if you're listing out like the most severe issues or causes for Orlando's free fall, Seb Heinz isn't even in the top five. Yeah. Of these teams, of these teams that we've sort of put in this four team race for eight, but I think Seb Heinz is the best coach at least over the past couple of years. Laura Harvey obviously has a legacy, but also we could do an entire pod on sort of what Laura Harvey is and has become her evolution, arguably her villain arc angel angel city. It doesn't, it doesn't seem to ever matter and they don't think it matters now. I know what their manager is. They are what they are. Yeah. Yeah. Managers generally don't matter, especially when you like try to put it in in the spectrum of things that create these kinds of results. Like Seb Heinz didn't suddenly become a bad coach from 2024 to now. That like Orlando hasn't really bolstered it. They're roster except for the OVAI transfer. And this year, you'll lose Kylian a dinner for the entire year. He's carry a bello for a good chunk of it. You lose Haley Mace for a good chunk of it. You lose Klafi Ali for a little bit of it. You lose Emily Sam's to Angel City. You lose Emily Sam's to Angel City. You lose Jackie OVAI for a large chunk. You lose Barbara Banda for a large chunk. Like need I go on. Like when have you had your optimal 11 on the field at the same time? Oh yeah. And Marta's getting older. Yeah. I don't know how much I didn't just don't know how much tactical adjustment you can really apply to the players you have on hand when these are the players you have on hand. Yeah. And you know, I saw Nick Cushing quote that was basically like I'm not used to losing. Yeah. And I was like he's getting very frustrated at it. And the reason Denver is losing can be discovered. But it's just a question whether he's interested in looking at it. The two even he's done a perfectly serviceable job. Yeah. There are you've got the phone numbers of the two men you could call right now to address the actual cause of all of these issues. Man, you know, and Cushing have our phone numbers. Yeah. Hello, Kurt Johnson speaking. That's right. Yeah. And like Mark Wilson, Kaylyn Carducci are not are not prepared to go beyond the side that one this year Orlando could reasonably look at this as a like a pivot season while still in a plan to like get the most out of peak band a year. And just missing the playoffs wouldn't be like some problem in a transitional season for them. It's just like between family leaving injuries, your just your roster has been decimated in, you know, to varying degrees throughout the season. But it's just never been the roster that you want. And so yeah, five nil to North Carolina. This is this is who you are. And I don't see it getting better. So with any luck, filtering things around, but we don't think that's going to happen. Anything else? 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